After some volatility seen previously in the week the market has actually secured disregarding a mix of geopolitical risks. TTF and NBP contracts went up previously in the week, complying with the Israeli strike in Doha whilst market reaction was muted when Poland rejected Russian drones over its airspace today– the first direct NATO-Russia contact considering that the battle started. In various other information the EU is considering increasing its phase-out of Russian oil and gas, under stress from the United States to act quicker. Russian gas currently makes up simply 13 % of EU imports, below 45 % before 2022 and the EU has actually agreed more adaptable storage regulations, providing member states added time and flexibility to hit the 90 % fill target.
Despite the above, European storage rests near 80 % full, keeping the system comfy in the meantime. Norwegian circulations continue to be constricted by maintenance, while LNG arrivals right into the UK are minimal. The punctual is looking tighter, with wind speeds going down and CCGT demand getting because of this. As we approach October, winter months weather risk is set to dominate. If conditions turn chillier, view can change quick, with gas once more the vehicle driver of power rates throughout the continent.
In the meantime, markets are looking calmness, finely well balanced however any type of further supply constraints, geopolitical threat, climate uncertainty and the capacity for ongoing sanctions will supply instructions as we head right into winter.
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